2004

You’ll need a mac or quicktime installed…

we love the ones that hurt us the most

Apple pulling out of Macworld seems like a good idea. It’s no longer the tech industry that is waiting for Apple’s next big thing, but it’s the entire world. When my grandma knows not to buy an iMac because a product refresh is going to hit in mid January, you know you’ve reached an unhealthy critical mass. Spending is down across the board, and unlike the dot com burst, it’s actually effecting Apple this time around.

Apple is at a crossroad of sorts. They love having that big unveiling of a new product, but they hate when their stock takes a hit when it’s not what the rumor mill was predicting. This goes back to the unhealthy critical mass from above. It’s no longer tech people following Apple’s stock, it’s everyone. Apple knows it can’t gamble in times like these… it knows it can’t let consumers hold off on their purchases because Macworld, or WWDC is coming. So it’s shunning what has worked so well for so many years (over 10 years at this point). It’s killing the keynote and it’s annual events.

Apple is bucking it’s own trend in favor of smaller, less predictable events, and saving them a ton of cash in the process. The less predictable the event, the lower the expectation, the lower the stock buyer pushback, yet still has the same benefits. You still make a splash, people are still listening, and people will still buy.

I’m confident that Apple hurt their own community, at least in the short term, but it will make them more nimble, and more even throughout the year. People will be more excited for any word on a new announcement, because Apple shunned what people loved the most.

ops

The iPhone is the best phone ever invented. Period. It may have minor flaws that may make it unsuitable for certain people (Keyboard, Carrier), but overall it’s the best phone ever. It proves that Apple’s wait and see approach for emerging markets is the way to go. It’s the stance they took on the Mp3 player, it’s the stance they took on smartphones, it’s the stance they are now taking on the netbook. They let other companies make the mistakes while they refine their product with granular attention to detail.

With that being said, wired just ran a story about a possible ZunePhone. If you think about it, it makes sense. Microsoft bought Danger (makers of the ever popular sidekick) a while ago and it just wouldn’t make sense to NOT make a ZunePhone.

I’ll come right out and say that I think it’s a good idea. There are a lot of people that want a little more design and hardware options than what the iPhone has to offer. Do I want a physical keyboard? Do I want to use something other than iTunes? Do I want a user replaceable battery? If you want an iPhone you don’t get a choice. Take Danger, smash it together with a good Mp3 player (the zune) and you just may have something.

There are a few potential problems with this idea though. Microsoft has too many platforms. Why are they going to support development of two entirely different OSes? Depending on what MS is trying to accomplish, I think it would be a mistake to come out with it in January. MS has a great opportunity to scrap the entire Windows Mobile platform and start over (something I think they should also do on the windows desktop side). When MS designed Windows Mobile they had a simple design goal, to make a phone that operated like Windows. Knowing what we know about smartphones now, we know that was the dumbest idea they have ever had (at least in the top 5).

Of all the companies that have the ability to make a pitstop in this fast moving race, MS has the largest ability to do so. They should sit out of the game for 18 months and develop a mobile platform based of an NT kernel and uses the best of Danger and Zune for presentation. Apple made that pitstop between 99-01 and it proved incredibly successful (in the desktop space). Palm is doing it now with Nova (and may sink because of it). MS is the 100lb gorilla that can actually afford to sit out and make something spectacular.

save the cheerleader, save the world

Just a quick note that I have been working feverishly on a couple of posts. I’ve been trying to squeeze out some articles of substance rather than falling back to just shitting out paragraph after paragraph of "how i feel".

It’s been one month since I switched to windows as my primary computer, and it’s been one year since I moved into my house… both of these events have caused a great amount of pause and introspection. Other events that have occurred recently is the first layoff in the history of the company I work for and the fact that I started an LLC to pursue some independent work. Despite the uncertainty of our future, 2009 still looks to be a bright spot with a great opportunity to grow.